Dr. Todd J. Barry

Adjunct Professor of Economics

University of Hartford & Bowling Green State University

United States

tobarry@hartford.edu

Abstract

This article offers an historically grounded analysis of political polarization in the United States. The manuscript challenges the contemporary belief that situates the origins of U.S. political dysfunction solely in the 2015-2016 election cycle, or even in the recent government shutdown in the Fall of 2025.  Instead, the essay offers a compelling study that chronologically traces the roots of modern divisiveness back to earlier periods, specifically highlighting the significance of the 1988 election and the aggressive campaigning tactics introduced then, and during the several presidential elections that followed.  The integration of Duncan Black’s “Median Voter Theorem” adds a theoretical framework to the historical analysis, helping to explain the shifts in candidate behavior, voter turnout, and the political importance of name recognition.  The span of the timeline-ranging from early America to the impact of modern social media creates an intensive survey of American history.  In the end, the polarization in the United States is not a recent phenomenon limited to the Trump era but has deeper roots, traced historically, whereby politics has been exacerbated by media evolution, globalization, generational and social change, systemic political strategies, misunderstood wars, financial and economic problems, and many other factors.

Keywords:  Baby Boomers, Government Shutdown, Mainstream Media, Median Voter Theorem, Political Polarization, Social Media, U.S. Elections

Regarding the recent Unites State’s government “shutdown,” in the Fall of 2025, some have placed the start of the “vitriol” and “dysfunction” of the United States (U.S). federal government, and the division amongst the American people, at the year 2015, the first campaign of President Donald J. Trump.  Truly, one can go back centuries to find negative U.S. campaigning, such as with cartoons and pamphlets drawn of President Andrew Jackson in the 1830’s, looking like a “king,” due to his attempts to gain more executive power.  One can search earlier and point to the “Alien and Sedition Act” which temporary banned free speech under President John Adams, or, one can skip ahead in time to see accusations against Grover Cleveland in the “Gilded Age,” that he had fathered an illegitimate child.  One could also find American division following the political and racial assassinations of the 1960’s, which ended an age of innocence, or look to the stepping aside of President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968, or to the Watergate hearings, both of which caused many Americans of that era to lose faith in politics.

 Still, some might argue that the precise dates, or at least the latest iterations of political division, can be traced to the 1980’s, due to: job losses due to globalization, or the political culmination of the Baby-Boom generation.  This generation seemed to struggle in its handling of the post-Cold War world, and, when reaching its prominence, it launched recriminations over the Vietnam War.  Furthermore, one can also trace divisiveness to: the financial problems caused by the government’s tax cuts for the wealthy, disabling parliamentary rules, inexperienced political candidates, to the news media trying to make profits in competition.  Division can also be linked to unspoken dissatisfaction with foreign affairs, social media’s uncivil influence, and the lack of third parties, combined with the failure of the country to make changes to adjust for the outdatedness of older institutions, globally and at home.

    In political-economic theory, the issue of divisiveness is essentially one of the Median Voter Theorem.  The theory was conceived by scholar Duncan Black (1948), and it has been written about ever since in different fields.  Candidates aim for the political center, since that is where the greatest number of voters are ideologically located.  However, the model fails to account for swings to extremism.  If both candidates out of two are in the exact center, then there is no incentive to vote, which is why many voters did not turn out in 2000.  Moreover, candidates who are liberal on some issues are more conservative on others, as are many voters.  Finally, the model ignores the importance of name recognition, or the moving to the political “extremes,” to increase turnout.  High turnout accounts for candidates such as Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on the American left, and in fact, Mr. Sander’s hero, Mr. Eugene V. Debs, is the most vilified character in U.S. history.  But name recognition and turnout have become much more important variables in recent years, especially for Mr. Trump.  These factors, along with other, dramatic domestic and global challenges over the past several decades, have influenced the negativity and divisiveness in American politics.

 To a casual observer, the crucial year of division might not have been 2015, but it could have started in 1988, with the politics that emanated from candidate George H.W. Bush and his future political family.  Mr. Bush, along with campaign advisor Lee Atwater, ran what could have been called the first truly “negative” campaign in American politics, against Democratic candidate, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis.  Mr. Bush, not while giving speeches on his back porch, as in American folklore of years past, instead ran the Willie Horton crime television ads, and his ads with shots of Mr. Dukakis, who had been a Korean War hero, appearing to ride goofily in a tank.  This negativity may have stared even sooner, in the Republican primaries, as then Vice-President Bush had only been able to defeat Senator Robert Dole, who served nobly in Italy in World War II, by attacking him on the issue of indecisiveness, a frequent theme of the Bush family, with Atwater’s help.  Some in the media, such as liberal journalist Dan Rather, attempted to stand up to the political distortions, but powerful news agencies inserted themselves.

 In the immediate years afterwards, the Republican Party was then very harsh towards President William J. Clinton, the first Baby-Boomer president, for his lack of involvement in the Vietnam War during his youth.  Moreover, the investigation into the Monica Lewinsky Scandal incidentally started as an investigation into the Whitewater land deal, which plainly involved land speculation that many people legally engaged in during the 1980’s.  Globalization from new trade policies led to job displacements, that were acerbated by budget cuts at that time, which alienated many white male voters, and it would continue to be a problem. 

 The presidential campaign of 2000 was civil, and Vice-President Albert Gore lost the election due to flaws in his own campaign.  Still, the newly started Fox News shows also played a “divisive” role.  In addition, the faith of Democrat Vice-President candidate Joseph Lieberman might have turned away anti-Jewish voters in certain locations.  Before the election, Mr. George W. Bush had only won the Republican primary after running false, negative ads against Senator John McCain (R-AZ) in South Carolina.  Afterwards, the 2001-02 Congressional elections were then littered with “political stunts,” from the Democratic side, such as attacks on Mr. Bush’s handling of the economy at the time.  Geared towards gaining voter attention, such stunts have continued, and they have blurred the lines between “what is right” and “what is right to get elected,” so that one can “do” what is right.  President George W. Bush would later work with the successor to the controversial Newt Gingrich, Illinois Representative Denny Hastert, as House Speaker, and Hastert had his parliamentary “rule,” which bears his name, that still limits debate and stifles congressional participation.  Studies (Barry and Aho, 2020) have shown the “Hastert Rule” to be statistically significant in reducing the amount of bills passed since then. 

 Mr. W. Bush, moreover, through his tax cuts, steered the federal budget out of balance, from surpluses to deficits, albeit with the support of some Democrats.  Consequently, America has been having to make difficult budget decisions ever since, which have all contributed to accusations on both sides.  Republicans have been cajoled by interest groups into signing pledges, or into swearing proverbial oaths to not raise taxes, when this is the only way for the government to raise revenue, especially with Social Security becoming insolvent.  The financial battles that have resulted have ranged from default scares, to sequesters, to special committees, to government shutdowns.  Such conflict has heightened tensions between wealthy and poorer social classes, creating even greater income inequality, especially in rural Appalachia, although this goes unnoticed by many because financial illiteracy leads to misunderstandings of the tax codes or how government finances work.  Then, the events of September 11, 2001, of terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City, were “unifying,” almost as much as the First Gulf War in 1991.  However, the Second Iraq War stoked divisions, and would give rise to the ISIS (Islamic State) group in Mid-East and in Africa.  These were problems that largely went unspoken of because the U.S. military and the press “sugar-coated” how poorly the post-9/11 wars, fought for different and varied reasons, truly went, although they were indeed successful at protecting Americans at home.  Then, the 2004 election saw the “swift boat” ads, and, while nothing negative can really be said about Democratic candidate Senator John Kerry’s (D-MA) war record, he was portrayed as a poor soldier, while candidate Bush was AWOL (absent, by some reports) during Vietnam- which, when investigated, saw the bizarre firing of the afore-mentioned news anchor Dan Rather from the Columbia Broadcasting Station (CBS). 

 When President Barak H. Obama emerged, through the political vacuum in Illinois, it unintentionally brought about racism and xenophobia, especially amongst many younger white males, who viewed him as privileged and as “non-American,” particularly in rural American with its fewer ethnic groups.  Meanwhile, “identity politics” was beginning to be advocated to increase more minority participation.  This fact was again exacerbated by the declining ability of white males to find work with the further weakening of U.S. manufacturing at the start of Artificial Intelligence-(AI) automation.  During the 2008 financial crisis, candidate John McCain offered few suggestions, and chose Sarah Palin for his Vice-Presidential candidate, rather than someone like Robert Dole’s wife, Senator Elizabeth Dole, or Democrat Joseph Lieberman.  This resulted in more inexperienced rhetoric that conflated populism with divisions.  Unrelatedly, a new round of race-riots began, which were met with dysfunction over how to reform police brutality laws, and attempts by political leaders to not vote on issues such as to be able to campaign on them.  Increased violence continued, leading to more frequent school shootings and violence against American politicians.  These acts have resulted in uneasy debates over gun rights given America’s “frontier culture.”  Moreover, the Baby-Boomers’ inability to define the world after the fall of the Soviet Union then took over, with the machinations in Georgia and Crimea, and then came the here-termed “Red Scare” about Russia intrusion in 2015, made possible by technological “hacking.”  Despite this happening, there was little proof found of any profound effects in the 2016 presidential campaign, other than developments of the U.S. government spying on people, parties, and even global allies. 

 Transpirations such as these manifested themselves further in 2015-2016, when a pushback against the job losses from globalization and unsuccessful trade deals culminated, especially amongst farmers and factory workers in the American mid-West.  Such regionalism resulted in perhaps the greatest divergence between the electoral vote and the popular vote taking place historically, more-so than 1876- Hayes vs. Tilden, when Republicans “waved the bloody banner” of the Civil War for votes.  More attempts to reform the Electoral College have been made than for any other law or section of the Constitution in American history, to perhaps encourage third parties, yet also with the need to be written in a way such that they are not “spoilers.”  One possibility might be to use list voting such as to give voters a “second choice” of third parties.

Overall, for decades, the nation, after the failed Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) from the 1970’s onward, has been unable to pass changes to the national Constitution, to reform outdated institutions.  In addition, more businesspeople, such as Mitt Romney (R-MA-UT), and candidates without political experience, but Master of Business Administration (MBA) degrees, are entering government.  Studies, such as Barry (2012), have shown that, globally, business leaders do not usually make for very successful politicians in navigating the legislative processes.  Meanwhile, global economic institutions established in the World Order following World War II have ceased to function due to inept management by developed world powers, while more nations gain geo-political influence from economic convergence due to outsourcing by larger, monopolistic companies to cheaper locations, such as China, which are now aflush with cash.

 Furthermore, because of the increasing conservativeness of the Supreme Court, due to, for example, Justice Ruth Beta Ginsberg passing away, the nation has been fighting new battles over social issues, such as LGBTQ rights, at the same time as older issues such as abortion and civil rights have reemerged.  The American family has declined as a social institution, and fewer people are having children because of the expenses.  Cultural clashes have been magnified by movement around the country of northerners to southern states, seeking jobs, lower taxes, or warmer weather, leading to new fights over “cancel culture,” such as over Confederate statues, and over the content of educational materials.

 These events have all occurred on top of the advent of social media, which invites more uncivil discussions.  Likewise, social media also forces traditional news agencies to be more polarizing in order to attract a greater number of viewers for greater monetary profits, as economic studies have shown (Boxell et al., 2017), which is probably true for the rise of “talk radio’s” rise, several decades prior, as well.  This is compounded by the fact that Americans are traditionally not accustomed to consuming alternative media to meaningfully gain different perspectives, as citizens in some western European countries are, for example.  Meanwhile, much more money has poured into politics, with the Citizens United case removing restrictions.  And, technology has divided American culture, and clashed it globally, by expanding the number of shows to watch on t.v. and other mediums such as cell phones, which leaves everyone literally on a different page. 

Finally, this litany of occurrences has been magnified at a time when the current President uses such mediums frequently, to enact accomplishments in part because the Congress is not only gridlocked, but it could be called anarchic.  The circumvention of Congress is especially happening with Executive Orders concerning energy, environmental, and immigration policies.  Additionally, the Covid-19 Pandemic under President Trump and President Joseph Biden turned wearing a mask for safety into a political statement.  The only overall way to defeat such division is via trust, the lack of which has divided politics into a battle between loyalties, whereas explaining the “why” behind how people feel in an age of soundbites could do greater good than trying to convince others to agree on issues.  Conversation at least continues a dialogue amidst personal differences.

 So, one can see how one might put the influential year of political divisiveness in the United States as 2015, but in terms of negative campaigning in American history, I put the year at 1988, or 2000.  This era was arguably the apex of the Pax America, which was a time of peace and prosperity that was then squandered, and can only be regained by putting parties aside and people first.  The whispers about a collapsing republic, which plagued the decline of ancient Rome, have reappeared in a different form some two-thousand years later.  Thus, the former date mentioned at the start of this paragraph was an unusual year, and time, when I remember trying to convince schoolmates to support “Mr. Michael Dukakis.”  As a decent candidate, he lost the 1988 presidential race due to a skeptical question in a dubious debate, while simply trying to give an honest answer at a time when people were searching for new meanings in an era of immense global and domestic change.

Bibliography

Barry, Todd J. (2012). “The Public- Private Divide: Do Leaders’ Education in Economics Help a

            Global Economy?” [Unpublished Manuscript]. University of Southern Mississippi paper,

            Course IDV 722.

Barry, Todd J. and Melissa K. Aho. (2020). “Up or Down! House Management and Public

              Finance Theory from America’s Era of Hastert.” The International Journal of Public

              Policy and Administrative Research, 7(1).

Boxell, Levi, Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro. (2017). “Is the Internet Causing Political

            Polarization? Evidence from Demographics.” National Bureau of Economic Research.

            Retrieved January 17, 2026 from https://www.nber.org/papers/w23258.

Black, Duncan. (1948). “On the Rationale of Group Decision-Making.” Journal of Political

            Economy 56(1), pp. 23–34.

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